Internet Stuffed?

Or is it just a blip? David Dorn examines the news that the number of UK Internet users has dropped by a totally unimpressive 1%

Not a lot of people know this, but I do a fairly regular local radio slot on a phone-in show. They don't take me on there because I'm particularly good at anything, but because, as the producer says, I've got a great face for radio (and, as it happens, a deep voice - but never mind!)

One of the features of the show is that its presenter and the team do have the habit of unearthing some good stories to natter about, and one this week was a cracker. According to Oftel, it seems, the number of Internet connected households in the UK has decreased by one whole percent, from 40% of the population to 39%.

So, the question was posed, did this mean that the Internet has reached saturation?

I think the answer is no, and that the 1% decrease is not significant, nor, even, accurate. Here's why:

Blips

Firstly, there's always a blip - a downturn in registrations and usage - over the summer months, when folks are doing what they always have - getting out there in the sun and doing summery things.

Over previous years, though, the numbers of folks actually coming onto the 'net for the first time has masked the blip - there's been more of them starting up than have left it alone for the summer.

Next, there's been a downturn in computer purchasing, according to all the usual sources. Since each new computer, these days, has a built-in modem (they're all 'Internet Ready', are they not?) and fewer of them have been sold, then the numbers coming onto the Internet have been a bit lower - or so you might think.

Unfaithful

Next comes the demise of another phenomenon peculiar to the UK - that of ISP Hopping. While a great many folks over the last five or six years have held one subscription-based account, they've also made use of so-called 'Free' ISPs, which make (or made) no charge for a subscription, but provided an 0845-style number for dialup purposes. Since there were no up-front charges to be found, many surfers simply signed up to dozens of ISPs and hopped amongst them, being faithful to none, and using another one when the one they'd just dialled was busy. Not surprisingly, this practice would tend to skew the figures more then somewhat.

Now, though, since the move to unmetered Internet connections pioneered by AOL (amongst others) - the kind of account you're reading this on, in fact - Internet users have tended to stop ISP hopping and stick to their unmetered connections - after all, it makes no sense to pay phone charges when you've no need to.

As a result, lots of 'Free' accounts will have automatically lapsed (five or six of mine already have) which would have the effect of reducing the numbers of registered users quite substantially.

Decrease? No way!

If you take all of these happenstances and trends into account, the fact that the Oftel stats show only a 1% decrease is insignificant. Indeed, you could argue that it actually represents an increase in that it's very possible that the number of actual people being connected has continued to rise, but the number of accounts they hold has decreased. Had we been talking about a 10% decrease, then I'd have had to say that there could, indeed, be fewer people using the Internet.

As it stands, though, I just can't see it. Our own readership here on Practical PC, for instance, has grown enormously, more than doubling over the course of a very few months, and we see new people coming on all the time.

So, the Oftel spokesman's opinion that it's way too early to make anything of the figures is more than likely correct. My prediction? We'll see a good upturn in numbers in the run up to (sorry to mention it now) Christmas and beyond.

 

David Dorn