Is Technology slowing down?

David Dorn didn't go to Comdex, but he's been following it on the 'Net - and he's wondering whether the pace of technology is slackening

It's an awful long way from my part of the UK to Las Vegas, even if Comdex is (as it's branded) the world's biggest and best IT show. The Internet being what it is, though, I've been able to sit in on all the keynote addresses from the show in the comfort of my own office, and I've had the pleasure of browsing various stalls and showspaces via video feeds. Ok, so it's not quite the same as being there (you don't get the free donuts, for one thing) but it's a sight cheaper and the coffee's better.

Listening to the likes of Bill Gates and the head honchos from Ebay, Novell and other notable companies, I've found myself wondering what on earth is happening to technology. It seems to me that, for the first time in a long time, it's actually starting to slow down a little - something I've been praying for for almost as long as I've been writing about it.

For instance...

indeed, reports itself thusly to any system information application. Even if it wasn't just a version upgrade, and was something completely new, it's not as if Microsoft has had to spend all that money hyping it up. In truth, you will very likely have trouble buying a new PC that hasn't got it on in six months' time. It's not as if you're going to walk into the front room and tell your significant other 'We've got a new PC, but I don't know which Operating System to put on it - there's so much choice'.

For most of us, the choice is Windows or Windows - and usually, it's limited to whichever Windows the maker of our machines fancies installing. And as of now, that isn't going to be Windows 95, which MS has taken out of the channel altogether.

So where's the competition? It isn't Linux, no matter how much its proponents would like it to be, it isn't OS/2, and it isn't BEOS... so where's the technological development there? It's slowed down, is where.

For Instance... (2)

Comdex has had loads of Digital Cameras on display - most of which weren't being launched there, since that would be way too late for the (sorry) Xmas sales rush - and they're not launching for next year at this point. Now, it used to be the case that manufacturers wouldn't launch at Comdex to avoid spoiling their Xmas sales because the next generation of kit was faster, smarter, cheaper, bigger, better or whatever. In the Digicam world, though, cheaper is more or less the only option. There have been few innovations in terms of the technology more or less since the things were invented.

Yes, you can get bigger CF cards and Microdrives. Yes, you can get more pixels per snapshot, and yes, you can buy Digital SLRs at relatively decent prices - even in Dixons! But none of that is new! It's cheaper, it's more available, but it's not new.

In fact, from what I've seen, most of what's been on show at Comdex is decidedly not new - it's mostly the combining of tested technologies into more functional units - like Ericsson licensing a Bluetooth equipped pen that can read movement on special paper and transmit the resulting 'image' as an email.

Bluetooth isn't 'new' any more. The kind of scanning the pen uses isn't 'new' (it's how ball-less mice work) and email is hardly new after 30 years. The pen itself may be a new combination of existing technologies, but it isn't a 'new' technology.

Happy

Now, lest you think I'm unhappy with this situation, let me tell; I'm not. I'm as happy as a pig in muck, and I'll tell you why. A slow-down in the relentless advance of technology - IT technology, that is - is good for your wallet. Just glancing round this office, I see a small range of PCs, from my current 1.7GHs Pentium 4 workhorse, with half a gig of RAM and 40 Gigs of hard drive, twin CD writers and a few other nice bits - like a 21£ monitor and ADSL - to a lowly Pentium 166MHz with 64MB of RAM and very little else, in comparison. But the thing is, up until a month or two ago, that 166 was in daily use - and for serious purposes.

Same applies to the PII 400MHz sat beside it (both acting as servers). Had the relentless march of technology not slowed a little, they'd still have been in daily use. As it is, most of us can now afford vast quantities of RAM in our machines (you could get 512MB for under £40 today, if you wanted). That technology has slowed right down.

We can now afford 1.5GHz proccessor equipped machines - under £600 sans monitor today. Slowed down again.

We can afford 10x and 12x and 16x CD burners - I don't see the technology changing there, either - it's just getting cheaper.

Change for change's sake

Indeed, with today's hardware, you can now get processing power that would have run ICI and NASA combined for a pittance. If you bought mid-range stuff - a 1.5GHz processor, 256MB of Ram, a 40GB hard drive and a 8x CD re-writer, together with a 17 or 19 inch monitor and Windows XP, you'd get loads of change from a grand and you'd have a machine that would do anything you wanted of it.

Let's face it, pros were editing digital video (processor heavy) on 266MHz PIIs a scant eighteen months ago (I know, I built such a machine for one company). So you can do that and have plenty of spare power.

Pros were editing huge photos on almost purpose built PCs with 256MB of RAM and a PII/400 in the same time frame (and still are!). You can do that with loads to spare - and much more cheaply than the pros did.

Pros paid £18,000 for the first 'pro-spec' digicams less than four years ago. You can out-pixel them today for under £400, and get more photos on your CF card that they'd ever dream about - indeed, you can get more storage in your camera that I had on my production PC five years ago.

So, where's the need to change? Where's the need for technology to advance at such a phenomenal rate? It's almost vanished. And a good thing too!

 

David Dorn